References & Footnotes

Please find the reference & footnotes table below for A Gift For Conversation: Let’s Discuss Climate Change by Dr Louis Keal. Last updated to version 1.4 on the 1st of October 2021.

If you like, you can download the reference table as a PDF:

ChapterPage #SectionRef #Referecnce WordReference / Note
Pre-Intro1What is this book?1this oneHello! Welcome to the references and footnotes.
Pre-Intro2Why do we need this book?1different story"We’ve had information campaigns on Brexit and Covid. What about the climate?", Climate Outreach. https://climateoutreach.org/information-campaigns-brexit-covid-climate-crisis-cop26/
Pre-Intro3Why do we need this book?219921992 Rio Convention on Climate Change, Page 6: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
Pre-Intro3Why do we need this book?320152015 Paris Climate Agreement: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
Pre-Intro3Why do we need this book?4this promise"Will 2021 be the year governments commit to quality climate education? A growing call for action ahead of the G-20", Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/education-plus-development/2021/06/02/will-2021-be-the-year-governments-commit-to-quality-climate-education-a-growing-call-for-action-ahead-of-the-g-20/
Chapter 1: All you need to know5What future do we want to see1clean and freshMuch of this narrative is inspired by the book "The Future We Choose" by former UN Executive Secretary for Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, and Tom Rivett-Carnac, senior political strategist for the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-future-we-choose/christiana-figueres/tom-rivett-carnac/9781786580375
Chapter 1: All you need to know6What future do we want to see2than ever tooFor an insightful exploration of the research surrounding the true causes of depression and anxiety, see "Lost Connections" by Johann Hari. Reading this, and comparing its recommendations to descriptions of the world in which we've acted on Climate Change, there are massive and obvious parallels. This gives me hope.

https://www.waterstones.com/book/lost-connections/johann-hari/9781408878729
Chapter 1: All you need to know8What exactly do we mean by Climate Change?1change"Our warming world: How much difference will half a degree really make?", WWF. https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/our-warming-world-how-much-difference-will-half-degree-really-make
Chapter 1: All you need to know9Do we know Climate Change is happening?1here, nowSeveral independent factors are explored by NASA in their "Climate Change: How do we know?" webpage: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
However, the most comprehensive overview I've found of the effects of Climate Change to date can be found in "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, 'Chapter 1: 1°' .
Chapter 1: All you need to know9Do we know Climate Change is happening?2bottom line"Insurance and Climate Change", Ecologist. https://theecologist.org/2019/jan/11/insurance-and-climate-change
Chapter 1: All you need to know9Do we know Climate Change is happening?3far, far worse"How insurance companies can prepare for risk from climate change", Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/financial-services/articles/insurance-companies-climate-change-risk.html
Chapter 1: All you need to know11How does Climate Change actually happen?1of years"Greenhouse gas effect consistent over 420 million years", Phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2007-03-greenhouse-gas-effect-million-years.html
Chapter 1: All you need to know11How does Climate Change actually happen?2un-burnedMethane has a shorter lifetime in the atmosphere, but is 72 times more warming in its first 20 years. "Methane vs. Carbon Dioxide: A Greenhouse Gas Showdown", One Green Planet. https://www.onegreenplanet.org/animalsandnature/methane-vs-carbon-dioxide-a-greenhouse-gas-showdown/
Chapter 1: All you need to know11How does Climate Change actually happen?3release it"Methane from new coal mines could cause greater warming than US coal plants", Institute of Engineering and Technology. https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2021/03/methane-from-new-coal-mines-could-cause-greater-warming-than-us-coal-plants/
Chapter 1: All you need to know11How does Climate Change actually happen?4vast quantites"Methane isn’t just cow farts; it’s also cow burps (and other weird facts you didn’t know about this potent greenhouse gas)", TED. https://ideas.ted.com/methane-isnt-just-cow-farts-its-also-cow-burps-and-other-weird-facts-you-didnt-know-about-this-potent-greenhouse-gas/
Chapter 1: All you need to know11How does Climate Change actually happen?5in the worldFood and Agriculture Organisation of the UN: data on cow & sheep stocks from 2019, worldwide. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
Chapter 1: All you need to know12Do we know Climate Change is caused by us?1different waysA search for ‘Proof for Climate Change’ will return dozens of articles and papers exploring different and independent ways that evidence shows humans have changed our climate. I would recommend this sceptical examination of the data and how reliable it (YouTube video, [24:08]) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7FAAfK78_M
Chapter 1: All you need to know12Do we know Climate Change is caused by us?2their wealthDivestment, the selling of investments into Fossil Fuel industries to mitigate climate change, is cited as a major concern to the profits of Fossil Fuel companies. "At last, divestment is hitting the fossil fuel industry where it hurts", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/16/divestment-fossil-fuel-industry-trillions-dollars-investments-carbon
Chapter 1: All you need to know12Do we know Climate Change is caused by us?3of dollars"Not Just the Koch Brothers: New Drexel Study Reveals Funders Behind the Climate Change Denial Effort", Drexel University. https://drexel.edu/now/archive/2013/December/Climate-Change/
Chapter 1: All you need to know12Do we know Climate Change is caused by us?4campaignsFossil Fuel companies' knowledge of their role in Climate Change and its damaging effects as long ago as the 1960s has been extensively documented. One site compiling some of the evidence is https://exxonknew.org/.
Chapter 1: All you need to know12Do we know Climate Change is caused by us?5closed doors"In Video, Exxon Lobbyist Describes Efforts to Undercut Climate Action", New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/climate/exxon-greenpeace-lobbyist-video.html
Chapter 1: All you need to know13Do we know Climate Change is caused by us?6the facts"Fossil Fuels and Climate Change: The Facts", Client Earth. https://www.clientearth.org/latest/latest-updates/stories/fossil-fuels-and-climate-change-the-facts/
Chapter 1: All you need to know16Who can we trust about the climate?1facts wasScientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming, J Powell, Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, 2019
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266
Chapter 1: All you need to know17Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad?1more extremeCarbon Brief's map of extreme weather events that have specific scientific studies into whether climate change provably made them more severe or more likely to have happened: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world
Chapter 1: All you need to know17Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad?2are deadlyFor heatwaves, see this scientific publication: Raymond, C. et al., Science Advances, 2020: 'The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance'. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838.

Deadly Hurricanes: "How Climate Change is making hurricanes more dangerous", Yale Climate Connection, https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

Increase of droughts: "Causes of Drought: What's the Climate Connection?", Union of Concerned Scientists, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/drought-and-climate-change
Chapter 1: All you need to know18Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad?3under attack"Climate Change and Health", World Health Organisation. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health
Chapter 1: All you need to know18Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad?4uninhabitableSee later sections of the book (What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?). One example is deadly heatwaves, just one of the many factors contributing to this danger: "Global heating pushes tropical regions towards limits of human livability", Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/08/global-heating-tropical-regions-human-livability
Chapter 1: All you need to know18Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad?5civilisationThe following references (and their titles) may sound alarming. But remember, the collapse of civilisation is only the most likely outcome should we not act on Climate Change now. Open letter signed by over 250 leading scientists and academics: "A warning on climate and the risk of societal collapse", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/06/a-warning-on-climate-and-the-risk-of-societal-collapse

"‘Collapse of Civilisation is the Most Likely Outcome’: Top Climate Scientists", Resilience. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/

"Yep, it’s bleak, says expert who tested 1970s end-of-the-world prediction", Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth
Chapter 1: All you need to know18Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad?6ever faced"Climate Change ‘Biggest Threat Modern Humans Have Ever Faced’, World-Renowned Naturalist Tells Security Council, Calls for Greater Global Cooperation", United Nations. https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14445.doc.htm
Chapter 1: All you need to know19How does a little heating cause so much disruption?1single dayEnergy imbalance (energy in - energy out, per day) from scientific publication: Loeb, N. et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2021: 'Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate'. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047

Hiroshima bomb energy from https://www.justintools.com/unit-conversion/energy.php?k1=hiroshima-bomb-explosion
Chapter 1: All you need to know19How does a little heating cause so much disruption?2our world"The Global Conveyor Belt", US National Ocean Service. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/05conveyor2.html
Chapter 1: All you need to know20How does a little heating cause so much disruption?3any heatingA thorough article with extensive references to scientific research papers: "The Vicious Climate-Wildfire Cycle", Union of Concerned Scientists.
https://blog.ucsusa.org/carly-phillips/the-vicious-climate-wildfire-cycle/
Chapter 1: All you need to know20How does a little heating cause so much disruption?4to -19°C"Hundreds of thousands remain without power as more snow is headed to Dallas-Fort Worth on heels of record cold", Dallas News, https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/02/16/thousands-still-without-power-as-north-texas-reaches-record-low-temperature/
Chapter 1: All you need to know20How does a little heating cause so much disruption?5by 5°C"North American heatwave broke records – and the climate models", Climate Change News. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/07/07/north-american-heatwave-broke-records-climate-models/
Chapter 1: All you need to know20How does a little heating cause so much disruption?6Climate Change"3 things to know about the record-smashing heat wave baking the Pacific Northwest", Science News. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/pacific-northwest-heat-wave-climate-change-things-to-know

"Heating Arctic may be to blame for snowstorms in Texas, scientists argue", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/feb/17/arctic-heating-winter-storms-climate-change

"Jet stream: Is climate change causing more ‘blocking’ weather events?", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/jet-stream-is-climate-change-causing-more-blocking-weather-events
Chapter 1: All you need to know21Do we know Climate Change is fixable? What would it take?1uninhabitableSee Reference 4 of "Do we know Climate Change is bad? How bad" above.
Chapter 1: All you need to know21Do we know Climate Change is fixable? What would it take?2may be scarce"Turn Down the Heat : Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience", Report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Analytics. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/14000
Summary of the report provided by GreenFacts.org: https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/index.htm#0
Chapter 1: All you need to know24Setting the scene with Sir David Attenborough1February 2021"Sir David Attenborough on Climate and Security - Security Council Open VTC", YouTube video, [8:04]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7I5Ala6KYc
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting271: “Why aren’t we acting then? If this threat is so urgent, why don’t our actions show it?”1PAIN'Book: "Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change" by George Marshall. Published 2015. Page 47. https://www.waterstones.com/book/dont-even-think-about-it/george-marshall/9781632861023
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting281: “Why aren’t we acting then? If this threat is so urgent, why don’t our actions show it?”2global inequality"Britain Talks Climate" report by Climate Outreach, 2020. https://climateoutreach.org/reports/britain-talks-climate/
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting314: “Sure it’d be nice to fix the environment and save the planet.”1generationFor example, coastal flood damage alone in an optimistic “keeping global warming below 2°C” scenario is expected to reach $11.7 Trillion by 2100 – 1/7th of the world’s current economic output. This is just one factor of many. Reference for flooding cost: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/#
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting325: ”We have more pressing things to deal with first, like the economy, jobs and the NHS.”1other issuesReport: "Co-benefits of climate change mitigation in the UK: What issues are the UK public concerned about and how can action on climate change help to address them?", Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, 2019. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/briefing-papers/Co-benefits-of-climate-change-mitigation-in-the-UK.pdf
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting325: ”We have more pressing things to deal with first, like the economy, jobs and the NHS.”2COVID-19"Coronavirus and Air Pollution", Harvard School of Public Health. https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-pollution/
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting335: ”We have more pressing things to deal with first, like the economy, jobs and the NHS.”3companies"Fossil fuel subsidies need global reform, say experts", Phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2020-10-fossil-fuel-subsidies-global-reform.html
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting346: ”It might be a big deal for some countries, but it won’t affect us here in Britain.”1times normal"Record Breaking Rainfall", UK Met Office. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/2020-winter-february-stats
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting346: ”It might be a big deal for some countries, but it won’t affect us here in Britain.”240 years"How extreme weather is affecting UK wheat crop - and what it means for bread prices", Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bread-price-wheat-crop-uk-weather-climate-change-farmers-a9691596.html
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting346: ”It might be a big deal for some countries, but it won’t affect us here in Britain.”3countries"How much flooding is in the UK’s future? A look at the IPCC report", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-much-flooding-is-in-the-uks-future-a-look-at-the-ipcc-report
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting357: ”But what about China’s emissions? What about India? And the USA?”1don't actKang, S. & Eltahir, E., Nature Communications, 2018: ‘North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation’. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 173.
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting357: ”But what about China’s emissions? What about India? And the USA?”2Climate ChangeWang, B. and Zhou, Q., WIRE Climate Change, 2020: 'Climate change in the Chinese mind: An overview of public perceptions at macro and micro levels'. https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.639
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting368: ”Overpopulation is the real issue, there’s simply too many of us.”1of writinghttps://www.worldometers.info/world-population/, measured July 2021.
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting368: ”Overpopulation is the real issue, there’s simply too many of us.”2NigerianReport: "Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries", Publications Office of the European Union. https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/71b9adf3-f3dc-11ea-991b-01aa75ed71a1
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting368: ”Overpopulation is the real issue, there’s simply too many of us.”3the poorThere are multiple sources for this, but one interesting one is this tool: https://www.carbon.place/ , which splits England into local communities and indicates the emissions of that community. The 10% least deprived communities emit more than 3x the carbon on average than the 10% most deprived. See also "Carbon emissions of richest 1 percent more than double the emissions of the poorest half of humanity", Oxfam https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-percent-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanity
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting379: ”Climate Change might be a big problem for future generations. But not for me.”1and chanceBook: "Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change" by George Marshall. Published 2015. https://www.waterstones.com/book/dont-even-think-about-it/george-marshall/9781632861023
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting3810: “Look at how fast things have developed - technology will save us.”1this trap"Report: UK Government's net-zero plans 'over-reliant' on biomass and carbon capture", edie. https://www.edie.net/news/6/Report--UK-Government-s-net-zero-plans-are--over-reliant--on-carbon-capture-technologies/
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting4112: “Okay, but I’m already doing my bit.”1this crisis"Lifestyle Changes Aren’t Enough to Save the Planet. Here’s What Could", TIME. https://time.com/5669071/lifestyle-changes-climate-change/
Chapter 2: Troubleshooting43Story One: An entrepreneur’s vision brings light to dark places1Foundationhttps://literoflight.org/
Chapter 3: What's happened45Chapter 3: What's Happened11896Arrhenius, S., Philosophical Magazine and Journal Of Science, 1896: 'On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground'. https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
Chapter 3: What's happened46Haven’t we already made great progress to tackle Climate Change?1future resultsFor the UK: "Climate Change Committee warns of ‘gulf’ between promises and action", Big Issue. https://www.bigissue.com/latest/environment/climate-change-committee-warns-of-gulf-between-promises-and-action/

Worldwide: Climate Action Tracker is a fantastic resource for examining the promises, policies and actions of different countries. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/
Chapter 3: What's happened46Haven’t we already made great progress to tackle Climate Change?2undertakenAny search for "climate change action urgency" will yield explanations of this, or see later sections of the book. One example: "Climate change needs 'immediate' action or the world could face economic damage of $1.7trn a year by 2025, experts warn", Sky News. https://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-needs-immediate-action-or-the-world-could-face-economic-damage-of-1-7trn-a-year-by-2025-experts-warn-12260906
Chapter 3: What's happened475 Reasons Why Climate Change Hasn’t Been Fixed1environmentalistsBook: "Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change" by George Marshall. Published 2015. https://www.waterstones.com/book/dont-even-think-about-it/george-marshall/9781632861023
Chapter 3: What's happened485 Silly Reasons Why Climate Change Hasn’t Been Fixed2under a doorThe Bystander Effect is nicely demonstrated by Derren Brown on the show ‘Hero at 30,000 Feet’: https://youtu.be/zSaFfRc-T18?t=159
Chapter 3: What's happened49Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?1describesSee the detailed report from the investigation at https://www.smokeandfumes.org/fumes. Quote from embedded video: https://vimeo.com/162411486
Chapter 3: What's happened50Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?2responsibleSee original document at https://www.smokeandfumes.org/documents/16. More information about the context of the report can be found at: https://www.smokeandfumes.org/fumes/moments/6
Chapter 3: What's happened50Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?3findingsSee https://www.smokeandfumes.org/fumes/moments/6
Chapter 3: What's happened50Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?4scienceSee https://www.smokeandfumes.org/fumes/moments/7
Chapter 3: What's happened52Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?5again and againScientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming, J Powell, Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, 2019
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266
Chapter 3: What's happened52Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?6extraction"Revealed: 9 examples of fossil fuel company greenwashing", Client Earth. https://www.clientearth.org/latest/latest-updates/news/revealed-9-examples-of-fossil-fuel-company-greenwashing/
Chapter 3: What's happened52Where did “climate scepticism” come from? Weren’t scientists divided?7emissions"Shell ordered to slash emissions 45% by 2030 in historic court ruling", Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/shell-ordered-to-slash-emissions-45-by-2030-in-historic-court-ruling/
Chapter 3: What's happened53Haven’t fossil fuels led to the best standard of living in human history?1countries"The IEA’s Damascene conversion: net zero makes us richer and cuts energy costs for the poor", Telegraph, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/20/ieas-damascene-conversion-net-zero-makes-us-richer-cuts-energy/
Chapter 3: What's happened55Story Two: Taking Shell to court1to court"The Climate Case against Shell", Friends of the Earth Netherlands (milieudefensie)
https://en.milieudefensie.nl/climate-case-shell/climate-case-against-shell
Chapter 3: What's happened55Story Two: Taking Shell to court22030"Shell ordered to slash emissions 45% by 2030 in historic court ruling", Euractiv. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/shell-ordered-to-slash-emissions-45-by-2030-in-historic-court-ruling/
Chapter 4: What's going on58What is happening now with Climate Change?1Climate ChangeTwitter thread from Climate Scientist Daniel Swain: https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1061316105308753920
Chapter 4: What's going on58What is happening now with Climate Change?28 hours"Paradise lost: How California’s deadliest wildfire unfolded", CNN. edition.cnn.com/2018/11/17/us/california-fires-wrap/index.html. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 42.
Chapter 4: What's going on58What is happening now with Climate Change?3the 1970s"Factcheck: How global warming has increased US wildfires", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires
Chapter 4: What's going on59What is happening now with Climate Change?4civil warKelley, C. et al., PNAS, 2015: ‘Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought’. https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/23/1421533112.abstract. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 47.
Chapter 4: What's going on59What is happening now with Climate Change?5soon force"Climate crisis could displace 1.2bn people by 2050, report warns", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/09/climate-crisis-could-displace-12bn-people-by-2050-report-warns
Chapter 4: What's going on61What is happening with nature and biodiversity?1extinction"Climate change and mistiming: modelling phenology in great tits", University of Oxford Department of Zoology. https://www.zoo.ox.ac.uk/article/modelling-extinction-great-tits-and-winter-moth-caterpillars
Chapter 4: What's going on61What is happening with nature and biodiversity?2500 years"Extinctions", Our World In Data. https://ourworldindata.org/extinctions#how-many-species-have-gone-extinct
Chapter 4: What's going on61What is happening with nature and biodiversity?3that existReport: "Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services", IPBES. https://ipbes.net/global-assessment
Chapter 4: What's going on61What is happening with nature and biodiversity?4scientists"Biodiversity crisis is worse than climate change, experts say", Science Daily. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120120010357.htm

Youtube video with ecologists Dr Aaron Thierry and Dr Charlie Gardner: "When Academics Become Activists", [45:40]. https://youtu.be/ScG4H-zZNYg
Chapter 4: What's going on61What is happening with nature and biodiversity?5insects"Pollinators unde threat - so what?" UN Environment Programme. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/pollinators-under-threat-so-what
Chapter 4: What's going on62How much deforestation is happening?10.7 secondsCalculation for 25m by 10m swimming pool, based on figures from: "Amazon deforestation highest for 12 years, official data confirms", Greenpeace. https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/amazon-deforestation-highest-for-12-years-official-data-confirms/
Chapter 4: What's going on62How much deforestation is happening?2this timeThe Global Forest Watch website provides tools to monitor historical forest loss. See https://gfw.global/3Axzip8 for 2020 global forest loss.
Chapter 4: What's going on62How much deforestation is happening?3fast food"Revealed: UK supermarket and fast-food chicken linked to deforestation in Brazil", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/25/revealed-uk-supermarket-and-fast-food-chicken-linked-to-brazil-deforestation-soy-soya

And, "Supermarkets under pressure to drop JBS following Amazon deforestation allegations", The Grocer. https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/sourcing/supermarkets-under-pressure-to-drop-jbs-following-amazon-deforestation-allegations/646810.article
Chapter 4: What's going on62How much deforestation is happening?4saplings"When It Comes to the Climate, Older Trees Do It Better", TIME. https://science.time.com/2014/01/15/study-shows-older-trees-absorb-more-carbon/ References scientific publication: Stephenson, N. L. et al, Nature, 2014: 'Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size'.
Chapter 4: What's going on64How can we deal with COVID and with Climate Change at the same time?1recovery spending"UK government falters in delivering green recovery", Energy Monitor. https://energymonitor.ai/policy/green-deals/uk-government-falters-delivering-green-covid-19-recovery-plan
Chapter 4: What's going on66What are governments doing about Climate Change now?1Emergency'"UK becomes first country to declare a ‘climate emergency’", The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/uk-becomes-first-country-to-declare-a-climate-emergency-116428
Chapter 4: What's going on66What are governments doing about Climate Change now?2realise this"UK risks missing 2035 climate target by huge margin, advisers warn", New Scientist.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2281950-uk-risks-missing-2035-climate-target-by-huge-margin-advisers-warn/
Chapter 4: What's going on66What are governments doing about Climate Change now?3climate policySee the Climate Action Tracker page on Morocco: https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/morocco/
Chapter 4: What's going on67What does ‘Net Zero by 2050’ mean? Is that what scientists say is the answer?1deadly mistake"Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap", The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368
Chapter 4: What's going on67What does ‘Net Zero by 2050’ mean? Is that what scientists say is the answer?2anyway"World can limit global warming to 1.5C 'without BECCS'", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-can-limit-global-warming-to-onepointfive-without-beccs
Chapter 4: What's going on69The Future Technology Con1the Earth1: 0.6 hectares per ton CO2 * (½ of total emissions of 50 Gigatons CO2) gives 15 giga-hectares. Earth’s entire land area is 14.8 giga-hectares.
0.6 hectares per ton CO2 taken as a mid-range estimate, with requirements from 0.1 up to 1.7 hectares per ton also suggested depending on carbon source (see p43). Source:
Smith, P et al., Nature Climate Change, 2016: ‘Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions’.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2870.epdf?sharing_token=Xdg1v2J70mR1hNohqj_ABNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MxSj-W2yUGL_NojNGCjQlMbhC-uTtb6OBT9sfGvk8biomE7pEW20UZ4fZ6Ozo-G6CyOXpCkIiIsSnfYmSBqGEbVqBKbhxdRoPc-ahCL5K4NJSq_JXFZoovuoiSFqFcH2_9D-wx6NJKvSSzUt8Ii4xH34vuf1PdEEUGbo0ky_mwJHT6Gxg5aS_nNnaWX1_Yd-w%3D&tracking_referrer=www.carbonbrief.org
Chapter 4: What's going on69The Future Technology Con2current emissionsCalculation based on Izaikowitz, D., Frontiers In Climate, 2021: 'Carbon Purchase Agreements, Dactories, and Supply-Chain Innovation: What Will It Take to Scale-Up Modular Direct Air Capture Technology to a Gigatonne Scale'. https://internal-journal.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.636657/full
Chapter 4: What's going on70The Future Technology Con3experimentBook: "How to avoid a climate disaster: The solutions we have and the breakthroughs we need" by Bill Gates. https://www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-avoid-a-climate-disaster/bill-gates/9780241448304
Chapter 4: What's going on70The Future Technology Con4every yearThe World Counts: https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/planet-earth/air/air-pollution-deaths-per-year/story
Chapter 4: What's going on70The Future Technology Con5us hope"World can limit global warming to 1.5C 'without BECCS'", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-can-limit-global-warming-to-onepointfive-without-beccs
Chapter 4: What's going on72What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?1expansion"What is greenwashing?" Ethical Consumer. https://www.ethicalconsumer.org/transport-travel/what-greenwashing
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?2in 2019"Unpaid cost to society from fossil CO2 released from UK incinerators", UKWIN. https://ukwin.org.uk/facts/
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?3combined"Legal challenge over UK's exclusion of incinerators from emissions target", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/25/legal-challenge-uk-exclusion-waste-incinerators-emissions-trading-scheme
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?4toxic waste"Incinerators Harm Air Quality", UKWIN. https://ukwin.org.uk/oppose-incineration/#airquality
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?5recycling"Incineration Versus Recycling: In Europe, A Debate Over Trash", Yale Environment 360. https://e360.yale.edu/features/incineration_versus_recycling__in_europe_a_debate_over_trash
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?6deprived areas"UK waste incinerators three times as likely to be in deprived areas", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/31/uk-waste-incinerators-three-times-more-likely-to-be-in-deprived-areas
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?7energy parks'"The new green face of incineration technology", Ecologist. https://theecologist.org/2010/may/18/new-green-face-incineration-technology
Chapter 4: What's going on73What's 'Greenwashing'? Is it dangerous?8greenwashing"New independent group to help tackle 'greenwashing'", GOV.UK https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-independent-group-to-help-tackle-greenwashing
Chapter 5: What's going to happen76What exactly do you mean by 1.5°C of warming?1by 1.2°C"The CAT Thermometer", Climate Action Tracker. https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen80What would the world be like if humanity manages to stay below 1.5 C?1shortages"Democracy and diversity can mend broken food systems - final diagnosis from UN right to food expert", SRFood, http://www.srfood.org/en/democracy-and-diversity-can-mend-broken-food-systems-final-diagnosis-from-un-right-to-food-expert.

Also "The Planetary Health Diet", EAT Forum. https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/the-planetary-health-diet-and-you/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen80What would the world be like if humanity manages to stay below 1.5 C?2energy"Desalination powered by renewable energy", Water Scarcity Atlas. https://waterscarcityatlas.org/desalination-powered-by-renewable-energy/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen81What would the world be like if humanity manages to stay below 1.5 C?3half the globeBook: “Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life”. E. O. Wilson Biodiversity Foundation. https://eowilsonfoundation.org/half-earth-our-planet-s-fight-for-life/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen81What would the world be like if humanity manages to stay below 1.5 C?4happyTwitter thread from Professor of Social Ecology and Ecological Economics, Prof Julia Steinberger: https://twitter.com/JKSteinberger/status/1410178895291244544
Thread discusses scientific publication: Vogel, J. et al., Global Environmental Change, 2021: 'Socio-economic conditions for satisfying human needs at low energy use: An international analysis of social provisioning'
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378021000662?via%3Dihub
Chapter 5: What's going to happen81What would the world be like if humanity manages to stay below 1.5 C?5emissions againBelow 1.5 is as safe as possible: 2 degrees of warming is terrifyingly dangerous: "Climate 'tipping points' could push us past the point-of-no-return after less than 2 degrees of warming", Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/climate-domino-effects-close.html
Chapter 5: What's going to happen83How can humanity prepare for a world warmed by 1.5°C?1most affectedThere are multiple sources for this obvious point, but one example: "Environmental Refugees (Climate Change and How it Affects People's Lives)", Reset. https://en.reset.org/knowledge/environmental-refugees-%E2%80%93-how-climate-change-affects-peoples-lives
Chapter 5: What's going to happen86What would the world be like if humanity reaches 2°C of warming?1Malaria"Mosquito-borne diseases could reach extra ‘one billion people’ as climate warms", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/mosquito-borne-diseases-could-reach-extra-one-billion-people-as-climate-warms. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 77 onwards.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen86What would the world be like if humanity reaches 2°C of warming?2grain cropsMortality: Dmitry, S. et al., Epidemiology, 2015: 'Long-term impact of moscow heat wave and wildfires on mortality'. https://journals.lww.com/epidem/Fulltext/2015/03000/Long_Term_Impact_of_Moscow_Heat_Wave_and_Wildfires.30.aspx

Grain grops: "Russian heat wave 'had both manmade and natural causes'", University of Oxford. https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2012-02-21-russian-heat-wave-had-both-manmade-and-natural-causes For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 87.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen86What would the world be like if humanity reaches 2°C of warming?3European summerSuarez-Gutierrez, L. et al, Environmental Research Letters, 2018: 'Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming'. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 88.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen86What would the world be like if humanity reaches 2°C of warming?4to drought"The impacts of climate change at 1.5C, 2C and beyond." Carbon Brief. https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen87What would the world be like if humanity reaches 2°C of warming?5their yieldsZhao, C. et al., PNAS, 2017: 'Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates'. https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326
Chapter 5: What's going to happen87What would the world be like if humanity reaches 2°C of warming?6every year1/7th of the world’s current economic output. Reference for flooding cost: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/#
Chapter 5: What's going to happen88How can humanity prepare for a world warmed by 2°C?1destroyedNumbers: "Climate crisis could displace 1.2bn people by 2050, report warns", Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/09/climate-crisis-could-displace-12bn-people-by-2050-report-warns

Injustice: "Climate Justice: 5 inequalities of climate change explained", ConcernUSA. https://www.concernusa.org/story/climate-justice-inequities-climate-change/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen89How can humanity prepare for a world warmed by 2°C?2numbers"Limiting global warming to 2 degrees 'inadequate', scientists say", Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-temperature-idUSKBN0NM40820150501
Chapter 5: What's going to happen89How can humanity prepare for a world warmed by 2°C?3to move"The climate crisis will create two classes: those who can flee, and those who cannot.", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/07/global-heating-climate-crisis-heat-two-classes
Chapter 5: What's going to happen89How can humanity prepare for a world warmed by 2°C?4by 2100Map based on Climate Central ‘Surging Seas’ visualiser: https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/7/9.6219/55.5753/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=year&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&forecast_year=2100&pathway=rcp45&percentile=p95&refresh=true&return_level=return_level_1&slr_model=kopp_2017
Chapter 5: What's going to happen91What are climate feedback loops?1heat upSearch 'Ice Albedo Feedback' for more information. One example: https://www.colorado.edu/bartlettcenter/2017/08/30/what-ice-albedo-feedback
Chapter 5: What's going to happen92What are climate feedback loops?2fine balanceZemp, D. C., et al., Nature Communications, 2017: 'Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks'. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14681 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 105.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen92What are climate feedback loops?3animal food"Meat, soya, fire and disease: how the Amazon rainforest is breaking down." Greenpeace. https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/meat-soya-fire-disease-amazon-rainforest-breaking-down/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen92What are climate feedback loops?4quantitiesAs of July 2021, the Amazon already emits more CO2 than it absorbs due to continued deforestation and human-made fires. "Climate change: Amazon regions emit more carbon than they absorb", BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57839364
Chapter 5: What's going to happen93What are tipping points?1triggeredScientific publication: Lenton, T. M. et al., Nature, 2019: 'Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against'. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0

More public-facing discussion of tipping points: "Explainer: Nine 'tipping points' that could be triggered by climate change", Carbon Brief, https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change
Chapter 5: What's going to happen94What are some examples of tipping points? Permafrost Melting1millenia"There are diseases hidden in ice, and they are waking up", BBC Earth. https://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up
Chapter 5: What's going to happen94What are some examples of tipping points? Permafrost Melting2worldHjort, J. et al., Nature Communications, 2018: 'Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century'. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07557-4 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 72.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen94What are some examples of tipping points? Permafrost Melting3releaseComyn-Platt, E. et al., Nature Geoscience, 2018: 'Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks'
Chapter 5: What's going to happen95What are some examples of tipping points? Ocean Current Shutdown1ice sheetsClimate tipping points could topple like dominoes, warn scientists', Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/03/climate-tipping-points-could-topple-like-dominoes-warn-scientists
Chapter 5: What's going to happen95What are some examples of tipping points? Ocean Current Shutdown2altogether"Guest post: Could the Atlantic Overturning Circulation ‘shut down’?", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-could-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-shut-down
Chapter 5: What's going to happen95What are some examples of tipping points? Ocean Current Shutdown3grow foodRitchie, P. D. L. et al., Nature Food, 2020: 'Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point'.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen96What are some examples of tipping points? Further Tipping Points1so farExplainer: Nine 'tipping points' that could be triggered by climate change, Carbon Brief, https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change
Chapter 5: What's going to happen96What are some examples of tipping points? Further Tipping Points2above 1.5°CLenton, T. M. et al., Nature, 2019: 'Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against'. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0
Chapter 5: What's going to happen96What are some examples of tipping points? Further Tipping Points3cascade'Climate tipping points could topple like dominoes, warn scientists', Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/03/climate-tipping-points-could-topple-like-dominoes-warn-scientists
Chapter 5: What's going to happen96What are some examples of tipping points? Further Tipping Points4likely trigger"Atlantic Ocean circulation at weakest in a millennium, say scientists", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/25/atlantic-ocean-circulation-at-weakest-in-a-millennium-say-scientists
Chapter 5: What's going to happen97What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?1above 2-3°CSalazar, L.F. & Nobre, C., 2010: ‘Climate change and thresholds of biome shifts in Amazonia’, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L17706 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 155.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen97What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?2the Amazon"Fires in Amazon forest rose 30% in 2019", Thomson Reuters Foundation. https://news.trust.org/item/20200109012321-xgzmf/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen97What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?3days or weeksBook: "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 158
Chapter 5: What's going to happen97What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?4billion trees"Amazon Rainforest", Greenpeace. https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/challenges/forests/amazon-rainforest/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen98What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?5kill peopleMora, C. et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017: 'Global risk of deadly heat'. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 135.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen98What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?6conditionsHuang, J. et al., Nature Climate Change, 2016: ‘Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change’. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2837 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 137.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen98What would the world be like at 3°C of warming?7of food#VALUE!
Chapter 5: What's going to happen99How can humanity prepare for a world warmed by 3°C?1to go"The CAT Thermometer", Climate Action Tracker. https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen101What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?1New ZealandSee a map summarising research: "The heat is on over the climate crisi. Only radical measures will work", Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live
Chapter 5: What's going to happen101What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?2into the airKleinen, T. and Brovkin, V., Environmental Research Letters, 2018: ‘Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon’. https://pure.mpg.de/pubman/faces/ViewItemOverviewPage.jsp?itemId=item_2560873 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 210.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen101What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?33°C worldCollapse of food supplies: Heat and dryness alone will cause drastic reduction in yield: Zhao, C. et al., PNAS, 2017: 'Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates'. https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326
Chapter 5: What's going to happen101What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?4by flooding"How much flooding is in the UK’s future? A look at the IPCC report", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-much-flooding-is-in-the-uks-future-a-look-at-the-ipcc-report
Chapter 5: What's going to happen102What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?5high tide lineKulp, S. and Strauss, B., Nature Communications, 2019: ‘New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding’. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z.pdf?stream=top For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 209.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen102What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?6we will dieRaymond, C. et al., Science Advances, 2020: 'The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance'. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/19/eaaw1838
Chapter 5: What's going to happen102What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?7warm and wetIm, E. et al., Science Advances, 2017: 'Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia'. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/8/e1603322.full
Chapter 5: What's going to happen102What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?8of MeccaKang, S. et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2019: 'Future heat stress during muslim pilgrimage (Hajj) projected to exceed "Extreme Danger" Levels'. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL083686 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 172.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen102What would the world be like at 4°C of warming?9of ChinaKang, S. and Eltahir, E., Nature Communications, 2018: ‘North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation’. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y. For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 173.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen103What would the world be like at 5°C of warming?1million yearsZhu, J. et al., Science Advances, 2019: ‘Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks’. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874 For additional context, see "Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency" by Mark Lynas, Page 226.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen103What would the world be like at 5°C of warming?2the Earth"When did dinosaurs live?" Natural History Museum. https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/when-did-dinosaurs-live.html
Chapter 5: What's going to happen103What would the world be like at 5°C of warming?3hothouse' stateLenton, T. M. et al., Nature, 2019: 'Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against'. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0
Chapter 5: What's going to happen103What would the world be like at 5°C of warming?4tipping pointsBrovkin, V. et al, Nature Geoscience, 2021: 'Past abrupt changes, tipping point and cascading impacts in the Earth system'. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00790-5
Chapter 5: What's going to happen103What would the world be like at 5°C of warming?5wiped out"The 'great dying': rapid warming caused largest extinction event ever, report says", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/06/global-warming-extinction-report-the-great-dying
Chapter 5: What's going to happen104Do we have a choice which of these happens?1still rising"Emissions will hit record high by 2023 if green recovery fails, says IEA", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/20/emissions-record-high-by-2023-if-green-recovery-fails-says-iea
Chapter 5: What's going to happen106Which of these scenarios is humanity choosing right now?1warmed world"Climate change: Promises will mean rise of 2.4C - study", BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-56984691
Chapter 5: What's going to happen106Which of these scenarios is humanity choosing right now?2reach 2.9°C Report: "Climate Action Tracker, Warming Projections Global Update, May 2021". Climate Action Tracker. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf
Chapter 5: What's going to happen106Which of these scenarios is humanity choosing right now?3oftenIn many cases, climate scientsts' worst-case expectations are met or exceeded by events. Some examples:

German floods in July 2021:
"Climate scientists shocked by scale of floods in Germany", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/16/climate-scientists-shocked-by-scale-of-floods-in-germany

Heatwaves in Canada, June & July 2021:
"Canadian inferno: northern heat exceeds worst-case climate models", Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/02/canadian-inferno-northern-heat-exceeds-worst-case-climate-models

Ice loss:
"Global ice loss increases at record rate." University of Leeds. https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4756/global_ice_loss_increases_at_record_rate

Sea level rise:
"Sea level rise matches worst case scenario", University of Leeds. https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4658/sea_level_rise_matches_worst-case_scenario
Chapter 5: What's going to happen109What would it take to stay under 1.5°C?1past 1.5°C"We’ve already installed enough fossil fuel infrastructure to commit to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of planetary warming", Energy In Demand. https://energyindemand.com/2019/07/06/weve-already-installed-enough-fossil-fuel-infrastructure-to-commit-to-more-than-1-5-degrees-celsius-of-planetary-warming/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen109What would it take to stay under 1.5°C?2transportation"Main sources of Methane Emissions", What's Your Impact. https://whatsyourimpact.org/greenhouse-gases/methane-emissions
Chapter 5: What's going to happen110What would it take to stay under 1.5°C?3alternatives"How much meat should Ibe eating?" Greenpeace. https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/how-much-meat-should-i-be-eating/?_ga=2.200669230.1896256437.1610938065-1500376388.16
Chapter 5: What's going to happen110What would it take to stay under 1.5°C?4mangrove forestsMangroves: "Mangroves protect coastlines, store carbon – and are expanding with climate change", The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/mangroves-protect-coastlines-store-carbon-and-are-expanding-with-climate-change-81445
Chapter 5: What's going to happen110What would it take to stay under 1.5°C?5reducing meat"Meat, soya, fire and disease: how the Amazon rainforest is breaking down." Greenpeace. https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/news/meat-soya-fire-disease-amazon-rainforest-breaking-down/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen110What would it take to stay under 1.5°C?6under 1.5°C"World can limit global warming to 1.5C 'without BECCS'", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/world-can-limit-global-warming-to-onepointfive-without-beccs
Chapter 5: What's going to happen111Why do climate scientists say there is such urgency to act now?1very quickly"New research suggests 1.5C climate target will be out of reach without greener COVID-19 recovery plans", The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/new-research-suggests-1-5c-climate-target-will-be-out-of-reach-without-greener-covid-19-recovery-plans-151527
Chapter 5: What's going to happen112Why do climate scientists say there is such urgency to act now?2five yearsIn January 2021, this estimate was 6 years. "Guest post: Refining the remaining 1.5C ‘carbon budget’", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-refining-the-remaining-1-5c-carbon-budget

"The global 1.5°C carbon budget has reduced by 30 per cent in just three years – trends show we must reduce emissions faster", ClimateWorks Australia. https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/news/the-global-1-5c-carbon-budget-has-reduced-by-30-per-cent/
Chapter 5: What's going to happen113How fast do we need to act?1four yearsIn January 2021, this estimate was 6 years. "Guest post: Refining the remaining 1.5C ‘carbon budget’", Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-refining-the-remaining-1-5c-carbon-budget

"The global 1.5°C carbon budget has reduced by 30 per cent in just three years – trends show we must reduce emissions faster", ClimateWorks Australia. https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/news/the-global-1-5c-carbon-budget-has-reduced-by-30-per-cent/

Nearly a year later with no meaningful action whatsoever from world governments, this now stands around four years.
Chapter 5: What's going to happen115Economics for Human Needs1used aloneAitken, A., National Institute Economic Review, 2020: 'Measuring welfare beyond GDP' https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/national-institute-economic-review/article/abs/measuring-welfare-beyond-gdp/8DD5126C15628C7C72456EA2C4DD733F
Chapter 5: What's going to happen115Economics for Human Needs2new modelDoughnut Economics Action Lab: https://doughnuteconomics.org/
Book: "Doughnut Economics", by Kate Raworth
Chapter 5: What's going to happen115Economics for Human Needs3Brusselshttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/amsterdam-brussels-bet-on-doughnut-economics-amid-covid-crisis.html
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?120Chapter 6: What do I do about it?1unhappiness"Materialistic people 'more likely to be depressed and unsatisfied'", Medical News Today. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/275044

Also see the book "Lost Connections" by Johann Hari.
https://www.waterstones.com/book/lost-connections/johann-hari/9781408878729
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?120Chapter 6: What do I do about it?1necessaryArticle: "Yes, Actually, individual responsibility is essential to solving the climate crisis", Sierra Club. https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis?fbclid=IwAR1R8Oqaf4X6xC9YyF368-1bsKddhcv5a_8q_IYqMbEmHKy5wLeUy0RpwtA

YouTube Video: Climate Outreach, "Webinar: Lifestyle change & system change are two sides of the same coin - UNEP EGR" [59:32]. https://youtu.be/deXXo8uN260
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?121Story Four: It’s never too late to make a difference1Assembly’https://www.climateassembly.uk/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?121Story Four: It’s never too late to make a difference2to learnBusiness, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee
Oral evidence: Findings of the Report of Climate Assembly UK, HC 117 https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/2345/html/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?122Story Four: It’s never too late to make a difference3awakened me"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/31/its-awakened-me-uk-climate-assembly-participants-hail-a-life-changing-event
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?123Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?1emissisions"The carbon footprint sham", Mashable. https://mashable.com/feature/carbon-footprint-pr-campaign-sham
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?124Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?2levelBook: "Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change" by George Marshall. Published 2015. Page 94. https://www.waterstones.com/book/dont-even-think-about-it/george-marshall/9781632861023
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?125Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?3imported goods"Half UK's true carbon footprint created abroad, research finds", https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/16/britain-climate-efforts-undermined-failure-imports-carbon
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?125Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?4heavy emitter"The fashion industry emits more carbon than international flights and maritime shipping combined. Here are the biggest ways it impacts the planet.", Business Insider. businessinsider.com/fast-fashion-environmental-impact-pollution-emissions-waste-water-2019-10?r=US&IR=T
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?126Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?5CancerDinu, M. et al., Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, 2017: 'Vegetarian, vegan diets and multiple health outcomes: A systematic review with meta-analysis of observational studies'. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26853923/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?126Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?6diabetesTonstad, S. et al., Diabetes Care, 2009: 'Type of vegetarian diet, body weight, and prevalence of type 2 diabetes'. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19351712/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?126Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?7heart diseaseKim, H et al., Journal of the American Heart Association, 2019: 'Plant‐Based Diets Are Associated With a Lower Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease, Cardiovascular Disease Mortality, and All‐Cause Mortality in a General Population of Middle‐Aged Adults'. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31387433/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?126Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?8than vegansKim, H. et al., BMJ Nutrition, Prevention and Health, 2021: 'Plant-based diets, pescatarian diets and COVID-19 severity: a population-based case–control study in six countries'. https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/4/1/257
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?126Can ‘Lifestyle Changes’ and ‘Personal Carbon Footprints’ make a difference?9is bestQuote from the book "The Future We Choose" by former UN Executive Secretary for Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, and Tom Rivett-Carnac, senior political strategist for the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-future-we-choose/christiana-figueres/tom-rivett-carnac/9781786580375
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?127The Target: Where are our biggest sources of emissions?1by source"Emissions by sector", Our World In Data. https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?127The Target: Where are our biggest sources of emissions?2we import"Half UK's true carbon footprint created abroad, research finds", https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/16/britain-climate-efforts-undermined-failure-imports-carbon
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?130Activism1their tactics"Changes in Public Opinions?", A Suffrage Struggle. https://sachamorris.wordpress.com/2016/11/03/changes-in-public-opinions/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?130Activism2en masse"The Albany Movement (1961-1962)", Black Past. https://www.blackpast.org/african-american-history/albany-movement-1961-1962/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?131Activist Organisations1GandhiExtinction Rebellion's inspiration: "Emergency on Planet Earth: Part 7: Act Now… So what do we do?", Extinction Rebellion. https://extinctionrebellion.uk/the-truth/the-emergency/part-7/

Mahatma Gandhi's Tactics: "SATYAGRAHA / CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE", MK Gandhi. https://www.mkgandhi.org/civil_dis/civil_dis.htm
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?131Activist Organisations2NVDABook: "This Is an Uprising: How Nonviolent Revolt Is Shaping the Twenty-First Century", Mark Engler & Paul Engler. https://www.waterstones.com/book/this-is-an-uprising/mark-engler/paul-engler/9781568585703
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?131Activist Organisations3these tactics"About Us", Extinction Rebellion. https://extinctionrebellion.uk/the-truth/about-us/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?132Activist Organisations4on climate"UK becomes first country to declare a 'climate emergency'", The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/uk-becomes-first-country-to-declare-a-climate-emergency-116428

For the greater context of global results of NVDA & Extinction Rebellion:
Gardner, J. C. et al., Frontiers in Sustainability, 2021: 'From Publications to Public Actions: The Role of Universities in Facilitating Academic Advocacy and Activism in the Climate and Ecological Emergency'. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frsus.2021.679019/full
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?132Activist Organisations5Climate ChangeFocusing on the 'overton window'. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

"How Extinction Rebellion Shifted the Overton Window", Earthbound Report. https://earthbound.report/2019/05/02/how-extinction-rebellion-shifted-the-overton-window/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?132Activist Organisations6Martin Luther KingMartin Luther King Jr also contended with mainstream disapproval. But not for his goals, but for his means. As he said in 1963:
“I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to 'order' than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection.”

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9350579-i-must-confess-that-over-the-past-few-years-i
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?134Decision-making, Lobbying and Influencing1institutions"Measuring the Growth of the Global Fossil Fuel Divestment and Clean Energy Investment Movement", Arabella Advisors. https://www.arabellaadvisors.com/resource/measuring-the-growth-of-the-global-fossil-fuel-divestment-and-clean-energy-investment-movement/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?135Reforest, Rewild, Recover1and health"Thriving with Nature", mentalhealth.co.uk. https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/campaigns/thriving-with-nature/guide
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?135Reforest, Rewild, Recover2food chain"The Climate Impacts of Rewilding", Nicholsons. https://www.nicholsonsgb.com/rewilding/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?135Reforest, Rewild, Recover3soil health"No-dig Gardening Guide", BBC Gardeners' World. https://www.gardenersworld.com/how-to/grow-plants/no-dig-gardening-guide/
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?136Talk About It1about itBook: "Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change" by George Marshall. Published 2015. Page 82. https://www.waterstones.com/book/dont-even-think-about-it/george-marshall/9781632861023
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?136Talk About It2we realiseBook: "Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change" by George Marshall. Published 2015. Page 116. https://www.waterstones.com/book/dont-even-think-about-it/george-marshall/9781632861023
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?137How To Have A Great Climate Conversation1experimentYoutube Seminar from Climate Outreach. Of the videos below, the 2nd is more important as it shares the results of the experiment.
Part 1: "How to have a climate change conversation, Webinar 1 #TalkingClimate", Climate Outreach, [55:20]. https://youtu.be/uznW6vQ1vsE
Part 2: "How to have a climate change conversation, Webinar 2 #TalkingClimate", Climate Outreach [42:56]. https://youtu.be/gyltf0YE_C0
Chapter 6: What do I do about it?139What ideas do you have?1shuts down"Employee Brain on Stress Can Quash Creativity And Competitive Edge", Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/work-in-progress/2012/09/05/employee-brain-on-stress-can-quash-creativity-competitive-edge/?sh=de492dcb3e91